Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC
Holstein Kiel
16:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedScheduled · Prediction locks at kickoff
Hertha BSC
28%25%47%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.29 – 1.72
Both teams score
Yes60.3%
No39.7%
Total goals
Over 2.557.8%
Under 2.542.2%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw53.5%
Draw or away72%
Probability margin
Probability margin18.5%
Non-leading outcomes53.5%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 360 · Kiel 20 · Hertha 21
- Data quality
- Full model sample · Moderate separation
Why the away win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Away win at 46.5%, 18.5% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.29 goals for Kiel and 1.72 for Hertha.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Kiel are 0-3-2 with a -3 goal difference; Hertha are 5-0-0 with a +9 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kiel | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 8 | |
| Hertha | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 7 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Moderate separation