Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Saarbrücken
Jahn Regensburg
14:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedScheduled · Prediction locks at kickoff
1. FC Saarbrücken
48%27%25%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.63 – 1.11
Both teams score
Yes54.9%
No45.2%
Total goals
Over 2.551.6%
Under 2.548.4%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw74.9%
Draw or away51.6%
Probability margin
Probability margin21.9%
Non-leading outcomes51.6%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 390 · Regensburg 19 · Saarbrücken 19
- Data quality
- Full model sample · Moderate separation
Why the home win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Home win at 48.4%, 21.9% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.63 goals for Regensburg and 1.11 for Saarbrücken.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Regensburg are 3-0-2 with a +5 goal difference; Saarbrücken are 3-0-2 with a +4 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regensburg | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 7 | |
| Saarbrücken | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 10 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Moderate separation