Jahn Regensburg vs MSV Duisburg
Jahn Regensburg
12:00 UTC · Venue not suppliedFinished · Prediction locks at kickoff
MSV Duisburg
37%27%37%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.46 – 1.46
Both teams score
Yes59.8%
No40.2%
Total goals
Over 2.555.8%
Under 2.544.2%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw63.2%
Draw or away63.4%
Probability margin
Probability margin0.2%
Non-leading outcomes63.2%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 397 · Regensburg 19 · Duisburg 20
- Data quality
- Full model sample · Low separation
Why the away win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Away win at 36.8%, 0.2% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.46 goals for Regensburg and 1.46 for Duisburg.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Regensburg are 1-0-4 with a -4 goal difference; Duisburg are 3-2-0 with a +8 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regensburg | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 10 | |
| Duisburg | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 3 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Low separation