Jahn Regensburg vs TSV Havelse
Jahn Regensburg
12:00 UTC · Venue not suppliedScheduled · Prediction locks at kickoff
TSV Havelse
53%23%24%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.99 – 1.30
Both teams score
Yes63.5%
No36.5%
Total goals
Over 2.563.8%
Under 2.536.2%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw75.9%
Draw or away47.4%
Probability margin
Probability margin28.5%
Non-leading outcomes47.4%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 446 · Regensburg 22 · TSV Havelse 22
- Data quality
- Full model sample · Moderate separation
Why the home win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Home win at 52.6%, 28.5% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.99 goals for Regensburg and 1.30 for TSV Havelse.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Regensburg are 0-2-3 with a -6 goal difference; TSV Havelse are 1-1-3 with a -3 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regensburg | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 14 | |
| TSV Havelse | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 11 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Moderate separation