Karlsruher SC vs 1. FC Nürnberg
Karlsruher SC
11:00 UTC · Venue not suppliedFinished · Prediction locks at kickoff
1. FC Nürnberg
43%23%34%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.95 – 1.73
Both teams score
Yes71.2%
No28.8%
Total goals
Over 2.571.1%
Under 2.529%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw65.8%
Draw or away57.1%
Probability margin
Probability margin8.8%
Non-leading outcomes57.1%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 333 · Karlsruhe 19 · Nürnberg 18
- Data quality
- Full model sample · Low separation
Why the home win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Home win at 42.9%, 8.8% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.95 goals for Karlsruhe and 1.73 for Nürnberg.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Karlsruhe are 1-2-2 with a -5 goal difference; Nürnberg are 4-1-0 with a +9 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karlsruhe | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 11 | |
| Nürnberg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 6 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Low separation