MSV Duisburg vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II
MSV Duisburg
14:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedScheduled · Prediction locks at kickoff
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II
60%22%19%
Likely score2–1
Expected goals2.17 – 1.16
Both teams score
Yes61.5%
No38.5%
Total goals
Over 2.564.6%
Under 2.535.4%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw81.2%
Draw or away40.4%
Probability margin
Probability margin38.1%
Non-leading outcomes40.4%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 446 · Duisburg 22 · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II 22
- Data quality
- Full model sample · High separation
Why the home win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Home win at 59.6%, 38.1% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 2.17 goals for Duisburg and 1.16 for TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Duisburg are 4-0-1 with a +7 goal difference; TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II are 3-1-1 with a +5 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duisburg | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · High separation