MSV Duisburg vs Viktoria Köln
MSV Duisburg
14:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedScheduled · Prediction locks at kickoff
Viktoria Köln
52%26%22%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.68 – 1.00
Both teams score
Yes52.5%
No47.5%
Total goals
Over 2.550.3%
Under 2.549.7%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw78.4%
Draw or away47.6%
Probability margin
Probability margin26.3%
Non-leading outcomes47.6%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 450 · Duisburg 22 · Viktoria Köln 22
- Data quality
- Full model sample · Moderate separation
Why the home win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Home win at 52.4%, 26.3% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.68 goals for Duisburg and 1.00 for Viktoria Köln.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Duisburg are 4-0-1 with a +7 goal difference; Viktoria Köln are 4-0-1 with a +11 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duisburg | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | |
| Viktoria Köln | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 3 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Moderate separation