Preußen Münster vs FC Ingolstadt 04
Preußen Münster
12:00 UTC · Venue not suppliedScheduled · Prediction locks at kickoff
FC Ingolstadt 04
32%25%43%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.45 – 1.72
Both teams score
Yes63.7%
No36.3%
Total goals
Over 2.561.5%
Under 2.538.5%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw56.7%
Draw or away68.3%
Probability margin
Probability margin11.5%
Non-leading outcomes56.7%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 390 · Münster 0 · Ingolstadt 19
- Data quality
- Early model sample · Moderate separation
Why the away win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Away win at 43.3%, 11.5% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.45 goals for Münster and 1.72 for Ingolstadt.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Münster are 1-0-0 with a +2 goal difference; Ingolstadt are 3-1-1 with a +6 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Münster | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | |
| Ingolstadt | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 9 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Moderate separation