Preußen Münster vs FC Ingolstadt 04

Preußen Münster

12:00 UTC · Venue not suppliedScheduled · Prediction locks at kickoff

FC Ingolstadt 04

Likely score11
Expected goals1.451.72
Both teams score
Yes63.7%
No36.3%
Total goals
Over 2.561.5%
Under 2.538.5%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw56.7%
Draw or away68.3%
Probability margin
Probability margin11.5%
Non-leading outcomes56.7%
Published
Training cutoff
Training matches
390 · Münster 0 · Ingolstadt 19
Data quality
Early model sample · Moderate separation

Why the away win is largest

Outcome separation

The leading outcome is Away win at 43.3%, 11.5% ahead of the next outcome.

Expected-goal balance

The model projects 1.45 goals for Münster and 1.72 for Ingolstadt.

Recent evidence

Across the displayed sample, Münster are 1-0-0 with a +2 goal difference; Ingolstadt are 3-1-1 with a +6 goal difference.

Top five scorelines

1111.3%
129%
217.6%
226.5%
016.4%

Recent form

TeamLast fiveMPWDLGFGA
Münster110031
Ingolstadt5311159

Published model snapshot

This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.

Training cutoff
Training matches
390 · Münster 0 · Ingolstadt 19
Data quality
Early model sample
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Moderate separation