RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
RB Leipzig
13:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedScheduled · Prediction locks at kickoff
Borussia Mönchengladbach
63%21%15%
Likely score2–0
Expected goals2.15 – 0.98
Both teams score
Yes55.9%
No44.1%
Total goals
Over 2.560.5%
Under 2.539.5%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw84.6%
Draw or away36.5%
Probability margin
Probability margin42.3%
Non-leading outcomes36.5%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 306 · Leipzig 17 · Gladbach 17
- Data quality
- Full model sample · High separation
Why the home win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Home win at 63.5%, 42.3% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 2.15 goals for Leipzig and 0.98 for Gladbach.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Leipzig are 3-0-2 with a -1 goal difference; Gladbach are 2-2-1 with a +3 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 11 | |
| Gladbach | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 4 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · High separation