RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV
RB Leipzig
13:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedFinished · Prediction locks at kickoff
Hamburger SV
69%19%12%
Likely score2–0
Expected goals2.32 – 0.86
Both teams score
Yes52.8%
No47.2%
Total goals
Over 2.561.7%
Under 2.538.3%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw88.4%
Draw or away30.6%
Probability margin
Probability margin50.5%
Non-leading outcomes30.6%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 306 · Leipzig 17 · HSV 17
- Data quality
- Full model sample · High separation
Why the home win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Home win at 69.4%, 50.5% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 2.32 goals for Leipzig and 0.86 for HSV.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Leipzig are 2-0-3 with a -4 goal difference; HSV are 2-1-2 with a -5 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leipzig | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 12 | |
| HSV | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · High separation