Rot-Weiss Essen vs Hansa Rostock
Rot-Weiss Essen
11:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedFinished · Prediction locks at kickoff
Hansa Rostock
31%28%41%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.24 – 1.46
Both teams score
Yes55.5%
No44.5%
Total goals
Over 2.550.6%
Under 2.549.4%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw58.9%
Draw or away68.7%
Probability margin
Probability margin9.9%
Non-leading outcomes58.9%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 410 · Rot-Weiss Essen 20 · Rostock 21
- Data quality
- Full model sample · Low separation
Why the away win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Away win at 41.1%, 9.9% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.24 goals for Rot-Weiss Essen and 1.46 for Rostock.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Rot-Weiss Essen are 4-1-0 with a +7 goal difference; Rostock are 2-2-1 with a -1 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rot-Weiss Essen | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 3 | |
| Rostock | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 12 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Low separation