Rot-Weiss Essen vs TSV Havelse
Rot-Weiss Essen
12:00 UTC · Venue not suppliedScheduled · Prediction locks at kickoff
TSV Havelse
69%17%13%
Likely score2–1
Expected goals2.70 – 1.16
Both teams score
Yes64.5%
No35.5%
Total goals
Over 2.574%
Under 2.526%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw86.6%
Draw or away30.6%
Probability margin
Probability margin52.3%
Non-leading outcomes30.6%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 390 · Rot-Weiss Essen 19 · TSV Havelse 19
- Data quality
- Full model sample · High separation
Why the home win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Home win at 69.4%, 52.3% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 2.70 goals for Rot-Weiss Essen and 1.16 for TSV Havelse.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Rot-Weiss Essen are 2-0-3 with a -7 goal difference; TSV Havelse are 2-0-3 with a -8 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rot-Weiss Essen | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 15 | |
| TSV Havelse | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 17 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · High separation