Rot-Weiss Essen vs Viktoria Köln
Rot-Weiss Essen
14:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedFinished · Prediction locks at kickoff
Viktoria Köln
47%27%26%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.57 – 1.11
Both teams score
Yes54.2%
No45.8%
Total goals
Over 2.550.3%
Under 2.549.7%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw74%
Draw or away53.1%
Probability margin
Probability margin19.9%
Non-leading outcomes53.1%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 397 · Rot-Weiss Essen 20 · Viktoria Köln 19
- Data quality
- Full model sample · Moderate separation
Why the home win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Home win at 46.9%, 19.9% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.57 goals for Rot-Weiss Essen and 1.11 for Viktoria Köln.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Rot-Weiss Essen are 3-1-1 with a 0 goal difference; Viktoria Köln are 2-1-2 with a -1 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rot-Weiss Essen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 | |
| Viktoria Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 11 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Moderate separation