SC Freiburg vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
SC Freiburg
13:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedFinished · Prediction locks at kickoff
Borussia Mönchengladbach
55%24%20%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.84 – 1.05
Both teams score
Yes55.6%
No44.4%
Total goals
Over 2.555.3%
Under 2.544.7%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw79.5%
Draw or away44.9%
Probability margin
Probability margin30.7%
Non-leading outcomes44.9%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 306 · Freiburg 17 · Gladbach 17
- Data quality
- Full model sample · High separation
Why the home win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Home win at 55.1%, 30.7% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.84 goals for Freiburg and 1.05 for Gladbach.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Freiburg are 3-1-1 with a +6 goal difference; Gladbach are 2-0-3 with a -1 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freiburg | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 6 | |
| Gladbach | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 10 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · High separation