SC Verl vs Jahn Regensburg
SC Verl
17:00 UTC · Venue not suppliedScheduled · Prediction locks at kickoff
Jahn Regensburg
64%19%17%
Likely score2–1
Expected goals2.48 – 1.26
Both teams score
Yes66.1%
No33.9%
Total goals
Over 2.572.1%
Under 2.527.9%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw82.8%
Draw or away36.4%
Probability margin
Probability margin44.4%
Non-leading outcomes36.4%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 449 · Verl 23 · Regensburg 23
- Data quality
- Full model sample · High separation
Why the home win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Home win at 63.6%, 44.4% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 2.48 goals for Verl and 1.26 for Regensburg.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Verl are 3-1-1 with a +2 goal difference; Regensburg are 0-2-3 with a -6 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Verl | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | |
| Regensburg | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 14 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · High separation