SC Verl vs MSV Duisburg
SC Verl
14:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedFinished · Prediction locks at kickoff
MSV Duisburg
65%20%15%
Likely score2–1
Expected goals2.24 – 1.00
Both teams score
Yes57.2%
No42.8%
Total goals
Over 2.562.9%
Under 2.537.2%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw85.1%
Draw or away35.3%
Probability margin
Probability margin44.3%
Non-leading outcomes35.3%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 390 · Verl 19 · Duisburg 19
- Data quality
- Full model sample · High separation
Why the home win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Home win at 64.7%, 44.3% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 2.24 goals for Verl and 1.00 for Duisburg.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Verl are 2-0-3 with a +2 goal difference; Duisburg are 2-2-1 with a +2 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Verl | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 7 | |
| Duisburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · High separation