SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Magdeburg Probability & Forecast

SpVgg Greuther Fürth

16:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedFinished · Prediction locks at kickoff

1. FC Magdeburg

26%21%53%

Likely score1–2

Expected goals1.59 – 2.27

Both teams score

Yes72.1%

No27.9%

Total goals

Over 2.574.2%

Under 2.525.9%

Two-outcome combinations

Home or draw47.5%

Draw or away73.8%

Probability margin

Probability margin26.3%

Non-leading outcomes47.5%

Published: Sep 1, 2026, 7:52 AM UTC
Training cutoff: Aug 30, 2026
Training matches: 333 · Fürth 18 · Magdeburg 18
Data quality: Full model sample · Moderate separation

Why the away win is largest

Outcome separation

The leading outcome is Away win at 52.5%, 26.3% ahead of the next outcome.

Expected-goal balance

The model projects 1.59 goals for Fürth and 2.27 for Magdeburg.

Recent evidence

Across the displayed sample, Fürth are 1-2-2 with a -2 goal difference; Magdeburg are 3-0-2 with a +2 goal difference.

Top five scorelines

1–28.6%

1–18.2%

2–26.9%

1–36.5%

2–16%

Recent form

Team	Last five	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA
Fürth		5	1	2	2	8	10
Magdeburg		5	3	0	2	10	8

Published model snapshot

This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.

Training cutoff: Aug 30, 2026
Training matches: 333 · Fürth 18 · Magdeburg 18
Data quality: Full model sample

dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Moderate separation