SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs 1. FC Nürnberg
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
11:00 UTC · Venue not suppliedScheduled · Prediction locks at kickoff
1. FC Nürnberg
37%25%37%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.56 – 1.57
Both teams score
Yes63.5%
No36.5%
Total goals
Over 2.560.6%
Under 2.539.4%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw62.5%
Draw or away62.9%
Probability margin
Probability margin0.4%
Non-leading outcomes62.5%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 315 · Fürth 17 · Nürnberg 17
- Data quality
- Full model sample · Low separation
Why the away win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Away win at 37.5%, 0.4% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.56 goals for Fürth and 1.57 for Nürnberg.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Fürth are 1-2-2 with a +1 goal difference; Nürnberg are 3-2-0 with a +7 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fürth | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | |
| Nürnberg | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 4 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Low separation