SV Meppen vs SG Sonnenhof Großaspach

SV Meppen

12:00 UTC · Venue not suppliedScheduled · Prediction locks at kickoff

SG Sonnenhof Großaspach

Likely score11
Expected goals1.771.46
Both teams score
Yes64.6%
No35.4%
Total goals
Over 2.562.8%
Under 2.537.3%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw68.8%
Draw or away55.8%
Probability margin
Probability margin13%
Non-leading outcomes55.8%
Published
Training cutoff
Training matches
390 · Meppen 0 · Sonnenhof Großaspach 0
Data quality
Early model sample · Moderate separation

Why the home win is largest

Outcome separation

The leading outcome is Home win at 44.2%, 13% ahead of the next outcome.

Expected-goal balance

The model projects 1.77 goals for Meppen and 1.46 for Sonnenhof Großaspach.

Recent evidence

Across the displayed sample, Meppen are 0-0-1 with a -3 goal difference; Sonnenhof Großaspach are 1-0-0 with a +1 goal difference.

Top five scorelines

1111%
219%
127.5%
226.6%
206.2%

Recent form

TeamLast fiveMPWDLGFGA
Meppen100103
Sonnenhof Großaspach110010

Published model snapshot

This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.

Training cutoff
Training matches
390 · Meppen 0 · Sonnenhof Großaspach 0
Data quality
Early model sample
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Moderate separation