SV Waldhof Mannheim vs FC Ingolstadt 04
SV Waldhof Mannheim
17:00 UTC · Venue not suppliedScheduled · Prediction locks at kickoff
FC Ingolstadt 04
30%26%44%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.32 – 1.63
Both teams score
Yes59.9%
No40.1%
Total goals
Over 2.556.6%
Under 2.543.4%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw56.2%
Draw or away69.8%
Probability margin
Probability margin13.5%
Non-leading outcomes56.2%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 449 · Mannheim 23 · Ingolstadt 23
- Data quality
- Full model sample · Moderate separation
Why the away win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Away win at 43.8%, 13.5% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.32 goals for Mannheim and 1.63 for Ingolstadt.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Mannheim are 2-0-3 with a 0 goal difference; Ingolstadt are 2-0-3 with a -4 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mannheim | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 6 | |
| Ingolstadt | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Moderate separation