SV Waldhof Mannheim vs Rot-Weiss Essen
SV Waldhof Mannheim
17:00 UTC · Venue not suppliedFinished · Prediction locks at kickoff
Rot-Weiss Essen
45%21%35%
Likely score2–2
Expected goals2.30 – 2.02
Both teams score
Yes78.5%
No21.5%
Total goals
Over 2.580.5%
Under 2.519.5%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw65.4%
Draw or away55.3%
Probability margin
Probability margin10.2%
Non-leading outcomes55.3%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 400 · Mannheim 20 · Rot-Weiss Essen 20
- Data quality
- Full model sample · Moderate separation
Why the home win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Home win at 44.7%, 10.2% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 2.30 goals for Mannheim and 2.02 for Rot-Weiss Essen.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Mannheim are 2-1-2 with a 0 goal difference; Rot-Weiss Essen are 3-1-1 with a +3 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mannheim | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | |
| Rot-Weiss Essen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 7 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Moderate separation