SV Wehen Wiesbaden vs MSV Duisburg Probability & Forecast

SV Wehen Wiesbaden

17:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedFinished · Prediction locks at kickoff

MSV Duisburg

44%25%31%

Likely score1–1

Expected goals1.74 – 1.42

Both teams score

Yes63.4%

No36.6%

Total goals

Over 2.561.1%

Under 2.538.9%

Two-outcome combinations

Home or draw69.2%

Draw or away55.8%

Probability margin

Probability margin13.4%

Non-leading outcomes55.8%

Published: Sep 1, 2026, 7:52 AM UTC
Training cutoff: Aug 30, 2026
Training matches: 410 · Wiesbaden 21 · Duisburg 20
Data quality: Full model sample · Moderate separation

Why the home win is largest

Outcome separation

The leading outcome is Home win at 44.2%, 13.4% ahead of the next outcome.

Expected-goal balance

The model projects 1.74 goals for Wiesbaden and 1.42 for Duisburg.

Recent evidence

Across the displayed sample, Wiesbaden are 1-2-2 with a -3 goal difference; Duisburg are 4-0-1 with a +6 goal difference.

Top five scorelines

1–111.3%

2–19.1%

1–27.5%

1–06.5%

2–26.5%

Recent form

Team	Last five	MP	W	D	L	GF	GA
Wiesbaden		5	1	2	2	3	6
Duisburg		5	4	0	1	12	6

Published model snapshot

This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.

Training cutoff: Aug 30, 2026
Training matches: 410 · Wiesbaden 21 · Duisburg 20
Data quality: Full model sample

dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Moderate separation