SV Wehen Wiesbaden vs Rot-Weiss Essen

SV Wehen Wiesbaden

12:00 UTC · Venue not suppliedScheduled · Prediction locks at kickoff

Rot-Weiss Essen

Likely score21
Expected goals2.551.92
Both teams score
Yes79.1%
No20.9%
Total goals
Over 2.582.3%
Under 2.517.7%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw71.3%
Draw or away48.4%
Probability margin
Probability margin22.9%
Non-leading outcomes48.4%
Published
Training cutoff
Training matches
390 · Wiesbaden 20 · Rot-Weiss Essen 20
Data quality
Full model sample · Moderate separation

Why the home win is largest

Outcome separation

The leading outcome is Home win at 51.6%, 22.9% ahead of the next outcome.

Expected-goal balance

The model projects 2.55 goals for Wiesbaden and 1.92 for Rot-Weiss Essen.

Recent evidence

Across the displayed sample, Wiesbaden are 1-0-4 with a -6 goal difference; Rot-Weiss Essen are 2-0-3 with a -7 goal difference.

Top five scorelines

217.2%
226.9%
316.1%
116.1%
325.8%

Recent form

TeamLast fiveMPWDLGFGA
Wiesbaden5104612
Rot-Weiss Essen5203815

Published model snapshot

This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.

Training cutoff
Training matches
390 · Wiesbaden 20 · Rot-Weiss Essen 20
Data quality
Full model sample
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Moderate separation