SV Werder Bremen vs FC Augsburg
SV Werder Bremen
13:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedFinished · Prediction locks at kickoff
FC Augsburg
33%27%40%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.35 – 1.49
Both teams score
Yes58.2%
No41.8%
Total goals
Over 2.553.9%
Under 2.546.1%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw60.3%
Draw or away66.7%
Probability margin
Probability margin6.4%
Non-leading outcomes60.3%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 315 · Bremen 17 · Augsburg 17
- Data quality
- Full model sample · Low separation
Why the away win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Away win at 39.7%, 6.4% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.35 goals for Bremen and 1.49 for Augsburg.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Bremen are 1-1-3 with a -4 goal difference; Augsburg are 3-1-1 with a +4 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bremen | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | |
| Augsburg | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 8 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Low separation