SV Werder Bremen vs RB Leipzig
SV Werder Bremen
13:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedFinished · Prediction locks at kickoff
RB Leipzig
24%25%52%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.16 – 1.81
Both teams score
Yes58.3%
No41.7%
Total goals
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw48.4%
Draw or away76.4%
Probability margin
Probability margin26.8%
Non-leading outcomes48.4%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 306 · Bremen 17 · Leipzig 17
- Data quality
- Full model sample · Moderate separation
Why the away win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Away win at 51.6%, 26.8% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.16 goals for Bremen and 1.81 for Leipzig.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Bremen are 0-1-4 with a -8 goal difference; Leipzig are 3-0-2 with a 0 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bremen | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 11 | |
| Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 10 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Moderate separation