TSG Hoffenheim vs Borussia Dortmund
TSG Hoffenheim
13:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedFinished · Prediction locks at kickoff
Borussia Dortmund
34%27%39%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.37 – 1.50
Both teams score
Yes58.8%
No41.2%
Total goals
Over 2.554.6%
Under 2.545.4%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw60.6%
Draw or away66.2%
Probability margin
Probability margin5.6%
Non-leading outcomes60.6%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 306 · Hoffenheim 17 · Dortmund 17
- Data quality
- Full model sample · Low separation
Why the away win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Away win at 39.4%, 5.6% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.37 goals for Hoffenheim and 1.50 for Dortmund.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Hoffenheim are 2-1-2 with a -3 goal difference; Dortmund are 4-0-1 with a +8 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 11 | |
| Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 3 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Low separation