TSG Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV
TSG Hoffenheim
13:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedScheduled · Prediction locks at kickoff
Hamburger SV
67%20%13%
Likely score2–0
Expected goals2.19 – 0.86
Both teams score
Yes51.8%
No48.2%
Total goals
Over 2.558.7%
Under 2.541.3%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw87.4%
Draw or away32.9%
Probability margin
Probability margin46.8%
Non-leading outcomes32.9%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 339 · Hoffenheim 19 · HSV 19
- Data quality
- Full model sample · High separation
Why the home win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Home win at 67.1%, 46.8% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 2.19 goals for Hoffenheim and 0.86 for HSV.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Hoffenheim are 1-0-4 with a -7 goal difference; HSV are 1-1-3 with a -11 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 14 | |
| HSV | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · High separation