TSG Hoffenheim vs VfB Stuttgart
TSG Hoffenheim
13:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedFinished · Prediction locks at kickoff
VfB Stuttgart
43%22%35%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals2.14 – 1.94
Both teams score
Yes76%
No24%
Total goals
Over 2.577.2%
Under 2.522.8%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw64.6%
Draw or away57%
Probability margin
Probability margin7.6%
Non-leading outcomes57%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 306 · Hoffenheim 17 · Stuttgart 17
- Data quality
- Full model sample · Low separation
Why the home win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Home win at 43%, 7.6% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 2.14 goals for Hoffenheim and 1.94 for Stuttgart.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Hoffenheim are 1-1-3 with a -5 goal difference; Stuttgart are 2-2-1 with a +1 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 13 | |
| Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 12 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Low separation