TSV Havelse vs Fortuna Köln
TSV Havelse
17:00 UTC · Venue not suppliedFinished · Prediction locks at kickoff
Fortuna Köln
32%24%44%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.51 – 1.79
Both teams score
Yes65.8%
No34.2%
Total goals
Over 2.564.2%
Under 2.535.8%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw56.2%
Draw or away68.2%
Probability margin
Probability margin11.9%
Non-leading outcomes56.2%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 410 · TSV Havelse 21 · Fortuna Köln 2
- Data quality
- Early model sample · Moderate separation
Why the away win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Away win at 43.8%, 11.9% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.51 goals for TSV Havelse and 1.79 for Fortuna Köln.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, TSV Havelse are 1-1-3 with a -2 goal difference; Fortuna Köln are 1-3-1 with a -1 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSV Havelse | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | |
| Fortuna Köln | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Moderate separation