VfB Stuttgart vs 1. FC Köln
VfB Stuttgart
18:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedScheduled · Prediction locks at kickoff
1. FC Köln
61%24%16%
Likely score2–0
Expected goals1.89 – 0.87
Both teams score
Yes50.1%
No49.9%
Total goals
Over 2.552.1%
Under 2.547.9%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw84.2%
Draw or away39.3%
Probability margin
Probability margin37.2%
Non-leading outcomes39.3%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 306 · Stuttgart 17 · Köln 17
- Data quality
- Full model sample · High separation
Why the home win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Home win at 60.7%, 37.2% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.89 goals for Stuttgart and 0.87 for Köln.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Stuttgart are 1-3-1 with a 0 goal difference; Köln are 0-2-3 with a -7 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stuttgart | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 11 | |
| Köln | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · High separation