VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Dortmund
VfB Stuttgart
16:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedFinished · Prediction locks at kickoff
Borussia Dortmund
35%29%36%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.21 – 1.24
Both teams score
Yes50.8%
No49.3%
Total goals
Over 2.544.1%
Under 2.555.9%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw64%
Draw or away65.5%
Probability margin
Probability margin1.5%
Non-leading outcomes64%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 315 · Stuttgart 17 · Dortmund 17
- Data quality
- Full model sample · Low separation
Why the away win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Away win at 36%, 1.5% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.21 goals for Stuttgart and 1.24 for Dortmund.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Stuttgart are 2-1-2 with a 0 goal difference; Dortmund are 5-0-0 with a +9 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 11 | |
| Dortmund | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 4 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Low separation