VfL Bochum vs DSC Arminia Bielefeld
VfL Bochum
11:30 UTC · Venue not suppliedScheduled · Prediction locks at kickoff
DSC Arminia Bielefeld
53%25%22%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.76 – 1.05
Both teams score
Yes54.8%
No45.2%
Total goals
Over 2.553.4%
Under 2.546.6%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw78.4%
Draw or away46.9%
Probability margin
Probability margin27.9%
Non-leading outcomes46.9%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 360 · Bochum 20 · Bielefeld 20
- Data quality
- Full model sample · Moderate separation
Why the home win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Home win at 53.1%, 27.9% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.76 goals for Bochum and 1.05 for Bielefeld.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Bochum are 2-1-2 with a 0 goal difference; Bielefeld are 1-2-2 with a -1 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bochum | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 | |
| Bielefeld | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 10 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Moderate separation