VfL Bochum vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth
VfL Bochum
11:00 UTC · Venue not suppliedFinished · Prediction locks at kickoff
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
55%23%22%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals2.04 – 1.26
Both teams score
Yes63.1%
No36.9%
Total goals
Over 2.564.1%
Under 2.535.9%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw77.6%
Draw or away45.2%
Probability margin
Probability margin32%
Non-leading outcomes45.2%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 324 · Bochum 18 · Fürth 18
- Data quality
- Full model sample · Moderate separation
Why the home win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Home win at 54.8%, 32% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 2.04 goals for Bochum and 1.26 for Fürth.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Bochum are 3-0-2 with a +1 goal difference; Fürth are 2-1-2 with a +1 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bochum | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | |
| Fürth | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Moderate separation