VfL Osnabrück vs 1. FC Magdeburg
VfL Osnabrück
11:00 UTC · Venue not suppliedScheduled · Prediction locks at kickoff
1. FC Magdeburg
40%24%35%
Likely score1–1
Expected goals1.74 – 1.62
Both teams score
Yes66.8%
No33.2%
Total goals
Over 2.565.1%
Under 2.534.9%
Two-outcome combinations
Home or draw64.7%
Draw or away59.7%
Probability margin
Probability margin5%
Non-leading outcomes59.7%
- Published
- Training cutoff
- Training matches
- 315 · Osnabrück 0 · Magdeburg 17
- Data quality
- Early model sample · Low separation
Why the home win is largest
Outcome separation
The leading outcome is Home win at 40.3%, 5% ahead of the next outcome.
Expected-goal balance
The model projects 1.74 goals for Osnabrück and 1.62 for Magdeburg.
Recent evidence
Across the displayed sample, Osnabrück are 0-0-1 with a -1 goal difference; Magdeburg are 2-0-3 with a -4 goal difference.
Top five scorelines
Recent form
| Team | Last five | MP | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Osnabrück | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | |
| Magdeburg | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 |
Published model snapshot
This version uses a transparent Poisson score model with a Dixon–Coles low-score correction. Probabilities describe uncertainty; they are not advice or guarantees.
dc-poisson-1.1.0 · Low separation